Thank you all for joining Talking Markets. Jeff Schulze: Well, again, services inflation, ex-rents, ex-shelter, it has a very strong correlation with the labour market. So there's only three that aren't red at this point. Jeff Schulze: Well, we think the Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured during the 1970s. But we only had one indicator change in the month and it was profit margins moving from yellow to red. Jeff Schulze: I would say that we're not in consensus in that regard, in the fact that on a scale of 1 to 10, I think most people think a one or two type of recession is going to come. Talking about it all is Jeff Schulze, Investment Strategist at ClearBridge Investments and architect of their Anatomy of a Recession program. And the second is that the second phase of this bear market has yet to play out, which is reduced earnings expectations. Job openings moved down to 10. There is no cost or obligation. They're usually good times to start dollar cost averaging into the markets because we can never tell when the bottom is going to be put in when you're going through a recessionary drawdown. 1 And only a couple of percentage points of mortgages went to subprime borrowers. And although job openings are down from peak levels at 11. We meet with regular guest, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments, to discuss the US economy—focusing on inflation, the US labor market, and the Federal Reserve.
When you compare that to the last time you saw sub 4% unemployment, at the tail end of last cycle, there was a job creation of around 156, 000 per month. So it's not a surprise given how aggressive the Fed has been in raising rates, that you're seeing some weakness here. Host: Wow, 2 million job losses. They need to create some slack. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. This presentation will give us useful information that will help us tie today's headlines (rising inflation, supply chain issues, housing boom, etc.. ) to what is really happening with our economy and the stock market. Facilitator's Bio: Corey Hardie is a Portfolio Specialist at ClearBridge Investments. Given heightened volatility during the last three transitions from early-to mid-cycle in 1994, 2003, and 2011, a period of consolidation ahead would not be surprising. Once again, today's guest was Jeff Schulze, the architect of the Anatomy of a Recession program from ClearBridge Investments. Annual returns are of the S&P 500 Index from the first post-recession green signal on the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard to the next recession and from the first post-recession green signal to the S&P 500 peak.
For all of our listeners, you can prepare yourself by reviewing Jeff's monthly commentaries and checking out the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard at. Host: Okay, Jeff, our time is up for today's session, but I really wanted to thank you for your terrific insight as we look to navigate the markets here in a new year 2023. But given the Fed's [US Federal Reserve's] focus on restoring price stability in the US economy, even if it meant a higher unemployment rate and a recession, we decided to foreshadow our expectation for a yellow overall signal in the coming months. 1 So counter-trend rallies can be quite long and quite robust as far as market price action. They never know the depth and the timing of a recession. So, it's really a small business story when you're talking about this insatiable labour demand. Member FINRA and SIPC. Issued in the U. by Franklin Distributors, LLC. So it certainly was a positive development from a market standpoint and we saw the rally as a consequence. Given today's robust economic backdrop, built on the strength of healthy consumer and business balance sheets, we feel any correction would witness a similar outcome. Jeff Schulze: Thanks, John. Anatomy of a Recession: The Fed's Job Problem. Or, will we see further rises in oil and prices at the pump? Now, in looking at every recession since 1948, the average length of recession has been 10.
And what the Fed is signalling is that they're going to do more rate hikes this year, and they are projecting over 1. And in the aftermath of the pandemic, the number of firms looking to increase their prices shot up dramatically. In our opinion; this creates a higher probability of a recession than consensus is appreciating.
Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. There's an old adage out there. So in looking at inflation, you can look at core measures of trimmed mean, you can look at median inflation or just core CPI, but all suggest that inflation remains stickier than the Fed would like. In fact, three of the four longest (and four of the six longest) expansions in history have played out over the past four decades. Schulze will explain why he now believes that there is a 55% chance of a downturn, why a recession is not inevitable but what conditions could push it one way or the other. And yes, inflation is a lagging indicator, but the Fed will not pivot until they achieve a broad-based and sustained slowdown in inflation. Two weeks ago, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared that a trough in economic activity had occurred in April 2020, making the two-month COVID-19 recession the shortest on record dating back to the mid-1800s.
And one of the reasons why we feel like a recession is our base-case scenario is the output of our proprietary Recession Risk Dashboard, which is currently flashing a recessionary red signal. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you've found your people. They are on the line there of a potential move. A look at the United States economy with a focus on labor, home sales and corporate profits with Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments.
Now, the latest release that we got saw job openings drop from 11 million to 10 million, which is a huge drop on a month-over-month basis. And the key difference was you had a very tight labor market in 1966 versus 1984 and 1995, which had a lot of labor market slack. 5 times that job creation. So, you're going to see this bifurcated data release, I think, really up until the second quarter of next year, and it's going to create an environment where we're going to have these pockets of strength in the markets and then pockets of weakness until the ultimate path is revealed on the US economy. 1 However, the average market bottom has occurred 6. They are going to have a different reaction function to what they have historically.
So, we think that they are going to make those wage concessions. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. Big businesses are starting to shed their workers, but small businesses have yet to do that. Genres: Description: Global perspectives and local insights from our investment teams.
Host: It does look like the market is finally coming around to share your sentiment, Jeff, regarding the Federal Reserve's strong resolve to fight inflation. And none of those have come to fruition quite yet. International investments are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. But again, if I had to make a best guess on when the recession starts, I'd probably put it in the third quarter of 2023.
And not only are they not cutting, they're going to be actively raising into this environment. Do you have any final thoughts for our listeners? Host: I would really like to discuss the December release of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard. WebEx may prompt you to install or activate a plug-in to view the meeting. Companies may not resort to a full-scale layoff cycle considering that margins peaked only three quarters ago, and on average, since 1960, from peak margin to recession, that timeline has normally been around three years.
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Take a look at our frequently asked questions so that you feel prepared for your procedure. Following the placement, you'll have months of healing before your dental crown or prosthetic device can be bonded. A dental implant is a prosthesis used to replace missing teeth. Dental implants are titanium fixtures placed in the jaw by an oral surgeon and allowed to heal for 3 – 6 months. One of the best parts is that they don't need any ongoing maintenance beyond good dental care. There are two surgical procedures with a couple of months in between them for recovery. Dentures take a while to get used to and require a lot of extra time-consuming care. The implant will act as a replacement root, stimulating the jaw bone which prevents bone loss. A dental implant doctor is a periodontist. Some posts are coated with a substance called hydroxyapatite, a mineral found in bone and tooth structures. With the increased popularity of this treatment, we've begun to receive more and more questions about it. There are three common types of dental implants which include: Endosteal, subperiosteal and zygomatic.
Are Dental Implants Worth The Investment? Surgeons can also perform a procedure called sinus augmentation or sinus lift. Secondly, you must be having adequate bone density. In addition, we offer All-On Four dental implant surgery which places your implants in a single visit! Our dental implant dentists can help you explore your tooth replacement options so you can smile with confidence. They will also take the time to answer any questions or concerns you have, along with reviewing all your treatment options. Many believe they are stuck with options that they cannot change. They are inserted into your jawbone during a minor surgical procedure that takes place in the dental office. Our team will be happy to help you process your claim submissions.
After the titanium has combined well with the bone, an abutment will be placed over on the part that will hold the new tooth. Are dental implants right for me? Choosing a knowledgeable, well-trained implant dentist will help minimize complications and ensure skillful handling of any problems, should they arise. Unfortunately, the answer to this is usually "no". In some cases, a small partial denture may also be supported with two implant posts. To request your appointment with one of our Grandville dentists, call (616) 534-0080. Dr. Adams will discuss your options with you prior to treatment. You will feel some pressing and pushing during the procedure as well as some vibration during the drilling stage, but this will not be painful in any way. A bone graft will strengthen your jawbone either using a part of your bone from a different area of your body, or using a synthetic bone material.
Fortunately, advances in dental technology allow us to create dental implants that can last for years to come.
They even stimulate your jawbone and keep it healthy, whereas your jawbone will recede over time without implants to reinforce it. Otherwise, you won't have enough bone tissue to support your implants and keep them stable. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to help minimize the occurrences of infection. Otherwise, the body will sense the absence of teeth and reabsorb the minerals in your jaw to use elsewhere.
If you need a replacement tooth while the implants are healing, temporary removable teeth or a temporary bridge can be made. Although dental implant procedures involve multiple steps, replacing just one missing tooth can not only sometimes be done in one day, it can help save the other, currently unaffected teeth from future damage. They are manufactured from titanium and are designed to substitute the root of a lost tooth, offering support and stability for the prosthetic tooth. This is generally done with a local anesthetic, so patients will not feel any pain. We generally wait until young adults have completed their growth cycle. The number of implant posts placed into the jawbone depends on the type of implant prosthesis used. As long as you take care of them, they will feel and act like normal teeth and can last for a lifetime. How Long Do Teeth Implants Last? Once the post is in place, a small connector piece, called an abutment, is placed on top of it. Regardless of where your implant is placed, your surgeon will have the necessary training to place a dental implant. Our mini implants are also good for patients with small areas of low bone density.